Step One: Write A Goal

I'm a long-distance runner, so I understand the importance of goal-setting when trying to improve your performance. When I lost my original bankroll I decided to do what I should have done in the first place, write down a clearly defined list of goals complete with strategy, milestones and a timeframe in which I want to achieve them.

The goals come in 3 flavours: long-term, medium-term and short-term and they are also made of plasticine. In other words, they can be reshaped should my circumstances change or the hoped for improvement doesn't come.

Now, my goals are very specific for me and will look ridiculously easy to achieve, but I'm starting right on the bottom rung of the ladder, I admit it.

My Starting Point

I'll be playing the .02/.04 cash tables and have given myself a starting bankroll of $30. I'll be sitting down at each table with an opening stake of $3 (a high 10% of my bankroll) and am planning on leaving the table each time I make a profit.

Long-Term Goals

To play profitable no-limit hold ‘em on the $25/$50 tables.

I’m not completely dedicated to the idea of achieving this goal inside a set timeframe, however, I’ve seen the metric of Hands Played used when others have set their goals and this seems to be a reasonable way to work out how long it might take me to achieve the goal. At this point in my life, I can only reasonably aim to play around 100 - 150 hands per day which means around 10,000 hands in 3 months. Before I allow myself to step up to each consecutive level I want to "do my apprenticeship" by playing at least 10,000 at that level. Therefore, my rough estimate is that I can hope to achieve my long-term goal is by July, 2010.

In order to play effectively at each successive limit level, a minimum bankroll will be required. I have calculated that the minimum bankroll I must attain to play $25/$50 is a tad over $35,000.
During the next 2 and three quarter years, I will have to continue to absorb as much knowledge as I can. To that end, I want to have exhaustively studied the books of Brunson, Harrington and Sklansky – not just read them but read, re-read and re-read again.

I also have to study the mathematics involved with playing winning poker and that means being able to calculate the odds. My ability to calculate pot odds and implied odds should become second nature due to the number of hands I will have played to reach this goal.

Medium-Term Goals

This goal is where I would like to be in 1 year’s time (16 October, 2008). Using the baseline of playing 10,000 hands at each level, I can expect to have progressed up to the 5th level on the ladder which is the .50/$1 level.

The only way I can hope to reach this level is to have shown a profit at each of the lower levels. I can expect my game to improve as I rise to each new level. However, I can also expect the competition to be tougher, so I may find it difficult to start with to maintain profitability.

I must include a plan of what I will do should I find that my bankroll is beginning to dwindle. To that end, I will be stepping back a level if I find that my bankroll is suffering. I will be writing a plan for a bad-case scenario and put it in a future post.

Short-Term Goals

Progress to the next level (.05/.10). Before moving up to the next level I must play at least 10,000 hands and show a profit when I have finished. I hope to average around 100 – 150 hands per day which gives me a timeframe of between 9½ - 14 weeks with which I can expect to have met my goal.

An added monetary goal is to have increased my bankroll from $30 to $60, which is a $30 profit. Given the expected timeframe quoted above, this works out to be an average daily profit of between 0.31 & 0.45 which I think is a reasonable expectation.

In this short-term goal I have split each $10 point as a milestone (Bankroll = $40, $50 and $60) and will be having a mini celebration and indulgent pat on the back when I reach each of these points. I've got to acknowledge my progress

Plans / Expectations to Meet the Goals

I hope to keep a log of every session that I play. In this log I'll note my opening bankroll position, the profit or loss made at each table I play, the number of hands that I played at each table and the closing position of the bankroll at the end of the day. I'll also try to also record notes of mistakes I felt I made and what I could have done better. Just as importantly I will note down when I feel I have played really well pointing out what I did right.

Studying others will become important too, taking notes of other players. Something that I've never done before is determine the loose players, the aggressive, the tight and the solid when I sit down at a table.

I am going to have good days, OK days, bad days and terrible days. The most important factor in succeeding will be how I react to the bad and terrible days. Accepting that they are going to happen is the first step in succeeding despite the losses. I will remain calm and will not complain about the bad beats that I’ve suffered. Instead, I should study the hand history and figure out what I could have done better that may have avoided the loss (or at least minimised it).